People AnalyticsMay 21, 2026 8 min read
The 'Sunday Scaries' index: the 90-day leading indicator of attrition nobody is measuring.
Resignation isn't a moment. It's a slow Sunday-night dread that shows up in your data months before the email. Here's the signal — and how to read it without becoming creepy.
Most attrition prediction models are built on lagging indicators: engagement scores, exit interviews, promotion velocity. The most useful signal I've seen in five years is none of those. It's the slope of the Sunday-evening dread — what I call the Sunday Scaries Index — and it shows up cleanly 60 to 90 days before the resignation email.
73%
of resigners surveyed in 2025 said Sunday-night dread preceded their decision by 60+ days
Microsoft Work Trend Index, 2025
11×
more after-hours self-status changes on collaboration tools in the 90 days before resignation
Visier benchmark, 2024
−38%
drop in voluntary Slack/Teams reactions in the 60 days before resignation
Visier benchmark, 2024
+47%
spike in 'OOO' calendar blocks added on Sunday evenings in the 30 days before resignation
Microsoft, 2025
How to measure it without surveillance creep
- Track team-level aggregates only — never individual surveillance dashboards.
- Use voluntary signals (reactions, opt-in pulse questions) before involuntary ones (after-hours activity).
- Disclose the metric publicly in your people analytics policy. If you can't say it out loud, don't measure it.
- Pair every quantitative signal with a manager conversation — never with an automated nudge to the employee.
Healthy
- Team-level aggregates.
- Voluntary, opt-in signals.
- Published methodology.
- Manager-led conversations.
Surveillance
- Individual dashboards available to anyone above the employee.
- Passive monitoring of keystrokes, mouse movement, camera presence.
- Hidden scoring nobody can audit.
- Automated 'wellness' nudges based on the score.
Written by
Pawan Joshi
HR & Operations leader scaling global remote teams across Nepal, the Philippines, Australia, and the US. Tech-leaning writing lives on Medium.